What is the most interesting and misleading psychological biases is what is called the end of history illusion, a bias that leads us to believe that we have reached the end point of the changes in our lives. We look at the path we have taken, recognize many changes that happened in the past decade, and yet for some reason are convinced that in the near future we will hardly change at all.
Let us do a small exercise. Imagine that I meet you in the street and ask, tell me, how much do you think you will change in the next ten years. The answers look something like this, I guess it will be more or less similar to today, or I am already quite formed, or maybe a few small changes, but basically I am who I am.
And then I ask another question, tell me, how much have you changed in the past ten years. Most people stop, smile, and start telling. Some went through a second career, others married or separated, became parents, changed their worldview, their habits, their hobbies, even their musical preferences. In other words, a lot has changed.
And then I ask one last question, and why should the next ten years have so little change while the last ten years had so much change. This is exactly the point where the end of history illusion strikes and people understand that most likely the next ten years will be characterized by a similar amount of changes as the last ten years.
If I think that my current version is final, I may give up opportunities for growth, learn less, try less, and take fewer risks. I may get stuck in a job, in a relationship, or in a lifestyle simply because I do not see myself changing.
Research shows that we tend to greatly appreciate the changes we went through in the past, but significantly underestimate future changes. This is not only a mistake, it is a consistent cognitive illusion. We see the past as dynamic but the future as static. And the truth is that the future is no less surprising than the past and sometimes even more. This illusion can lead to bad decisions. If I think that my current version is final, I may give up opportunities for growth, learn less, try less, and take fewer risks. I may get stuck in a job, in a relationship, or in a lifestyle simply because I do not see myself changing.
Therefore the important question is not only who am I today, but also how open I am to the possibility that I will be a completely different person in a decade. This does not mean giving up identity, it means recognizing the possibility of development. The awareness of the end of history illusion is not supposed to confuse us, it is supposed to free us. To understand that every version of us is temporary, that there is much more in the next versions, and that the future is a place where we can be surprised even by ourselves.
But if the end of history illusion is true for us as individuals, what does it mean for us if it is also true for companies and nations. When we look at other countries it is easy for us to think that they have already reached maturity, that they are not really going to change much, that they are more or less who they are, and that we are also more or less at the place where we will be. But what if this way of thinking is a mistake. What if the end of history illusion is true not only for private individuals but also for countries. And what if we deeply underestimate the ability of our country and other countries to change.
Imagine that we are considering political steps with other countries. Maybe we ask ourselves whether it is possible to reach an agreement with the current leadership of some country. But maybe this is not the right question. Maybe the question that should be asked is what is the chance that in the next ten years both we and they will change.
When we build policy, we need to recognize not only the existing situation but also the potential for change. Not out of naivety but out of understanding that change is not only possible, it is inevitable. Just as we change as people, so do nations, values, leaderships, and perceptions.
And I not only want us to recognize this change, our change and the change of other countries. I think the important question is whether we can shape a reality that will allow beneficial and far reaching changes for us and for them.